Fantasy Flex
Fantasy Flex

Episode · 2 months ago

NFL Night Shift | Week 3

ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Fantasy Flex is back with another edition of the Night Shift! Action Network fantasy football and NFL betting experts Chris Raybon and Sean "The Oddsmaker" Koerner look at the Sunday Night and Monday Night Football games from a fantasy and DFS perspective.

Tune in to hear them discuss Jimmy G and the Niners as they head to Denver to face the Broncos [2 min] on Sunday Night Football and the Monday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants [13 min]. They give their captains and dart throws as they scan each team's rosters to find the most value on running backs, wideouts, the occasional backup tight ends and even the lovable fullbacks in these prime-time games.

Subscribe, rate and review for more fantasy football and NFL betting content. You can also follow the guys on the award-winning Action Network app and track your own picks as well. Download it today!

The most valuable commodity. I know of his information. Wouldn't you agree? On five dollars? This is a road left. One man right. You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to be h my goodness, that's good. You guys are prone best, relentless, refusing to give up. Hit that. Welcome to the fantasy flex night shift podcast. This is your week three night shift preview feature in the Sunday night and Monday night football dfest slates. I am your host, Chris Raybon, joined as always by one of the top fantasy football rankers in the game, Sean Kerner. Sean, what's going on? What's up? I can't believe this already week three, and I know a lot of people are going to say that, but no, I literally can't believe it's week three. Yesterday I put out a couple of tweets saying it was week two. So that's so I'm legit still in week two, but man, we were flying through the season. Oh Yeah, we got UH. You know, last week we had a couple of Monday night games. This week we're back from one. Let us jump into the Sunday night football slate and we got the forty niners at the Denver broncos in my o hi. So they always have a good home field advantage. But when Jimmy Garoppo got announced as a starter, that point spread flipped. I got niners plus two and a half and right now, as we record this, it is niners minus one and a half, so about a four point swing on the point spread. That totals around forty four and a half forty five. So you know, the freaks come out at night. WHO's gonna have a free performance? Courtland Sutton is going to have a freak performance. He's like the ideal captain play here because a few months ago the bronker's wide receiver room seemed pretty crowded. They had courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy, Tim Patrick, Kj Hamdler Um, and right now it's pretty much just courtland sutton with, you know, Jerry Judy, UH and KJ Hamdler dealing with injuries right now. Tim Patrick, unfortunately, is out for the season. So Um Sutton has been dominating the team's are yards. He's accounted for of them, which ranked six in the league. Um and, as predicted, he's seeing more accurate downfill throws from Russ Wilson. So five of his six downfill targets have been catchable. Um, this is a connection. I think. Um, we'll only get better as the season goes on. So Um, really, whatever happens with judy or handler, even if they're active, I think Um Sutton in this spot is definitely the best captain play in my opinion. Yeah, and Judy did not practice Thursday. Take a Hammler, I believe was limited. It's it's not looking good for for Jerry Julie, which is the bigger one. Obviously I think Hamler would be on a pitch count either way. He just doesn't seem all the way back just based on you know, what we've seen out of him this far. So, uh yeah, courtland sutton should be the the target hug again for these for the broncos. For me, I think Jeff Wilson has a free performance on this night because you look at the forty niners and what are they gonna do in this spot? You know they're gonna THEY'RE gonna try to run the football. Obviously they're gonna. I think they're gonna have some success throwing it, but they can spread it around a little bit more with George kittle back, and I think kittle has a great matchup, by the way, so if he's active, he's another kind of sneaky play in that spot. But Jeff Wilson, I think you should dominate the backfield work. You kind of called it last week. UH, and they're not. They're not using Jordan Mason, so I doubt they use Marlon mack either. A ton and if they do, it was it probably won't be in the passing...

...game. So I expect Wilson to get, you know, Fifteen, twenty touches in this spot and if the nine is are in a positive game script, even better. So I really like Jeff Wilson in this spot. But I do think Kiddo is sneaky because Justin Simmons is out for Denver, the safety, and that's that's usually the guy who's gonna line up on those elite tight ends and cover them, and without him, I think it's gonna be a little more open for Kiddo coming back off this injury. Yeah, I love the Wilson Colland, Um, you're not worried about Tevin Coleman at all now he's so he's gonna be all the practice squad. Yeah, so it's gonna be like the B writers are saying it. They're not even sure whether it's Mac or Matson that's gonna be number two. So I mean I'm just projected. I'm kind of equally right now, but I'm most of the carriers are going to Wilson and of course Debo, but that's that's why I didn't really the second back doesn't even really matter a lot at this point because they just use debas that as that second back. But Tevin Coleman being the League winner weeks eleven through of the team at the end would be the most Kyle Shannigan thing ever. Right. If there's any goal line carries, Wilson is like minus eight hundred to get them, um, so that's why I like his value. They've been using him in the passing game. I know they don't throw much, but I think having Jimmy g under center helps him right like it boosts his touch. On odds they're probably they're gonna score more points with Jimmy G under center. Um, having more traditional offense, so he has less goal line competition, you know, with trail and out of the picture. So I just love Wilson's touch on upside on one game slate like this. Yeah, Denver likes to blitz to the second in blitz rate and usually that's bad for running backs, but a lot of times they run Wilson hot on a blitz route like he's actually one of the few running backs that has his yards per route in his career versus man coverage is higher than zone. He has one point three versus man and just point eight versus zwn. So he's running. It's not a lot big sample, but he's run seventy one routes against man coverage in his career and he's got eight catches for ninety one yards in a touch. So that's kind of uncommon for a right's bizarre. Yeah, so, I mean, but you could see, you know, at the goal line, because they teams love to blitz Jimmy Gee. So I don't expect Denver to back down. Yea, even though he's kind of killed the blitz. He was he was ten point one yards in a temp last year. Seven touchdowns, one pick. Pass. Rating was second in the League against the blitz. So you think teams would calm it down, but I don't know. Denver has been blitzing so far, as I kind of expect him to continue. All right, what about for other guys? DART throws? Do you like? Dude, like DOTS? Okay, I'm more of a, you know, cornhole man myself dart throws. So I'm going with John Jennings on the Niner side. Um, you know, Jimmy g back under center elevates the past game. I already hinted at that. So obviously more volume all the way around. Deebo, Samuel Brandon, George Kill or the obvious suspects to see a big boost from that. But Jennings could be sneaky, especially, you know, a bet to score a touchdown here. All five of his touchdowns last year we're from Jimmy G um, and that's all he's gonna have to do here to break the slate. So I think Jennings is a sneaky touchdown that which is perfect for a show down slate. Um, is Albert Oh consider a dark throat this point, or, as I'm calling him, Albert Zero after last week. I mean, if you like, to just mention him, because that's you know, people, people, people might be off him. Um. So I'M gonna go back in and double down him, especially if judy and handler or out or limited. Um. You know, it's kind of flukey. Last week he he saw two targets, didn't catch either one of him. But he's running a healthy route rate around six, so he could blow up at any point. This is the perfect time to just reinvest in him. And then the long shot play for me is the worst starting quarterback in NFL history, Kendall Hinton. Um, now that he needs a few things that happen right, um, but he saw the most playing time once Jerry Judy went down. Run Right, run route on seventy one of dropbacks last week. So if Judy's out, handlers out, Um, and they call up Hinton from...

...the practice squad again, uh, he could be the number two receiver there. So he's somebody to keep an eye out for. Only managed to, you know, holding one target or one catch last week off one target for twenty yards, but he could be sneaky here. Yeah, Kendall Hinton went arout, what seventy percent of time last week. So yeah, that's something a monitor because that's it's near starting. It's like a number three wide receiver workload, which could be enough. I mean this is a niner defense. You know. They they're gonna if they get ahead, they're gonna show and play zone and not blitz very much. So there could be some catches to be had that won't be like super contested. For hinting. Yeah, I like on the Niner side, it's tough because they don't use a lot of like they're just kind of using their stars mostly. But I'll go with Ray, Ray mccloud, because I saw that his his usage went up last week. He went from about a round of the dropbacks a week one to thirty six percent last week, and that was even with Danny Gray, the rookie wide receiver, five active. So I've heard that Jimmy G, you know, he's uh like McLeod is kind of an ideal target for him, because Jimmy G, you know, likes to put the ball on the receiver and give them room to run, and that's kind of what McLeod does. So I like him as like a sneaky play. He also play some special teams to maybe get get get a return or something like that. But UH yeah, I'M gonna go with mccleod on San France and then on Denver. Uh Yeah, I agree. I think it's Tyrie Cleveland. I think it's hitting and then, if, if it's not hitting, tyrie Cleveland is probably gonna be the third receiver. So he's saidoneh mentioned as well. But it's kind of crowded with Denver because you have all these tight ends. Uh, you have, you know, Andrew Beck the back. Here we go before bass. One man prays away, truck down the side. You know, we're doing our best to keep the fullback position alive and driving and make fullbacks great again. And he was. He was featured in uh in week one, but fourteen percent of the route on fourteen percent of dropbacks last week. So nothing. I was actually up from week one. So Hey, you never know with and you know it's gonna be like Eric Sober or Eric Comminson scoring touchdown. Soberts got one last week. No, I know, I know, and the routes run rate like this is not the time to target a backup tight end. But yeah, sober already cashed in last week. Um, so I wouldn't use him here. Famous last words, I know. And what's UP WITH MONTREAL WASHINGTON? He's just he's just not panting out. He got that design run play Um, which he did in the preseason. He looked good. He scored like a twenty yard play out a like a jet sweeper or something. So he's just kind of a gadget guy, but he hasn't seen the routes run rate you would have hoped so far this season. Yeah, I thought he was going to kind of be that backup slot. So when handler went down, I was expect think Washington to kind of pick up that playing time. But yeah, he was behind Hinton and Cleveland in that last game. You know, he is a rookie, so his numbers, like his usage, could go up gradually as a season progressive. So it might not be a bad idea, you know, especially in a large field, because he is the most explosive. Like if anyone's gonna break a big play, it's Washington. It's not it's not hitting or party Cleveland or a tight end. So I don't I don't actually hate it. I think you know, when rookies you just gotta kind of project forward a little bit. So I don't think he's stuck forever in in this rape. But yeah, he was definitely the fourth wide receiver last wee and we we can't get through this game without just mentioning Javonte Williams. Um, you know, I was very encouraged with his usage last week. Um, he stepped up. He saw four percent of the Russia attempts compared to Melvin Gordon thirty two. So all is right with the world. He is still their main pass catching back and their goal line back. So Um, I'm very high on Javonte here. I didn't get to mention in the captain slop, but he...

...he'd be my second best bet behind courland sutton. Yeah, I mean not as them do have a tough run defense that they're allowing two point six yards per carry this year. So I think he might have to do it a little more in the passing game this week. And of course, got you can't also leave to say without mentioning Kyle use check, the best fullback exactly makes fullbacks great again. He's got three targets this year. Has a quote a ball yet. So you know they got to get him, get him at least the catcher. So yeah, I think they don't like so they've they've been using Wilson's short as the pass catching back and they used to. You know, they're like having a Jamachael hasty type to kind of Um, you know, lighten the workload a bit for the workhorse back like Wilson. So yeah, maybe they use use check a little bit more this week while they tried to just figure out this running back situation in the meantime. and Jimmy G's back. So you know, yeah, Jimmy Good. Yeah, they say like those mobile quarterbacks don't tend to check down to the running backs, which is kind of true because when you instead of they just kind of scramble away. You know, they don't have to check it down, but less mobile guy like Jimmy g could be more likely to checking it down. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if he used checked feature here because he hasn't really made noise so far. They haven't unleashed him this season, though. He did get the he did get a rushing touchdown, so I guess they kind of unleashed Oh, they I guess they already unleashed him. But yeah, he's he's obviously a great showdown slate type of play. Let's jump to the Monday night game Dallas and the giants in Jersey. Giants favored by one. The total is only thirty nine in this game, so not a lot of score and expected who you like in the captain spot. I gotta go with, say, Klon Barkley here because, Um, you know, he's healthy and he's back to operating as a true workhorse back. So you know he's seen eighteen and twenty one Russia attempts in the first two games. Giants are one point favorites. I mean can can you believe what's going on right now? So I expect them to lean on Barkley heavily here. Um, and he's running a healthy seventy seven per cent routes runt rate on the season. The wide receiver situation is a mess, to put it kindly. Um, so if he has a chance to leave the team and targets as well like he did in week one. So just on this late I just gotta go with Barkley here for the freak performance of Monday and football. Yeah, I think you know s Kwon is the top player. I mean the the pivot, I would say is is Zeke, just because the passing games on both sides. I think I could struggle a little bit. But Zeke did see a snap rate increase from fifty eight to sixty seven percent last week. So if the cow you know. So it's a one point spread, which means either team could kind of take control of the game and end up in a positive game script. So I think uh zeke would be the pivot off off St Kwon. He's still, you know, he's still only caught two balls on the year, so it's not ideal. It seems like his passing game used to just going down. But should should still see, you know, two thirds of the snaps and as an outside shot at getting, you know, twenty touches in the game and he should be sneaky. His roster ship will probably be too low here, at least in the captain slot. Right. Yeah, because I think a lot of people will go with ceedee lamb as well. And what do you think of do you think CD lamb will be shadowed by dorry Jackson in this spot, because Jackson's allowed nothing over the last ten games. He's allowed yards in his last ten games. That's your guy. So you know better than me, but Um, that would make sense. Uh. And you know Michael Gallup is returning, so you know he's gonna be limited. I don't know why you wouldn't put your best player on lamb and with Dalton Schultz banged up to it seems like they should put all the resources in the selling CD land here. Yeah, I mean Jackson hasn't played much in the slot, but lamb has still been, uh, the cowboys slot receiver this Yeri he's played sixty one of his snaps and the side, so I would be surprised if they don't move him in there, especially in this matchup. But the giants, you know, they liked the blitz. They like to play a lot of man coverage. Dorry Jackson has played in the slot before, so I don't, you know, it's it's it's kind of up in the air, like I don't know for sure if he'll do it, because last week he followed around Robbie Anderson and not be j Moore. So you know it could, it would. They could...

...put him on Gallop, but that seems kind of weird. Like you said, it would be his first game back. You wouldn't be in the AIRY SNAB. But I think it's it is something to kind of monitor with ceedee lamb. Just you know, I wouldn't go too crazy because there's a possibility you could see a doory Jackson on him? All right, who do you like? For doctors'll take your darts over here pretty seriously. Huh? So the first guy, Gonf, is on the cowboys side. It's the Guy I think you mentioned heading a week one, but Jake Ferguson, Um, and he might be a bit more obvious if Dalton Schultz is ruled out. But it does seem like Schultz is gonna try to play through it. It's similar. I think it's the same exact injury ze cab last year. Right. It's his PCL um, like a sprain. So it's gonna be painful but he could play through it. Schultz isn't the most athletic guy. We like him because just of the scheme and Dak Prescott, Um. So I don't know if Schultz is gonna be able to perform well through this injury. Either way, Ferguson should step up. Like last week his restaurant rate jump up to percent. He hasn't seen a target yet this season, but that could change here and I think you mentioned he's kind of like a red zone weapon potentially, Um. So he would be a bet for, you know, like a troll showdown, slight touchdown, but he's someone a monitor. If Schultz is expected to be limited, which I think that will be the case, Ferguson will be the guy to step up. And then on the giant side, I mean what a ship show. This wide receiver situation is. I don't know how I projected, but David Sills right now is their number he's operating as their number two wide receiver. Uh, just you know, while Wandale Robinson and Canarius Tony tried to get healthy, Kenny Golladay's M I A, we have David Sills as the number two receivers. So I'm actually projecting him right around two, two and a half receptions just based on his underlying usage Um, and I can't imagine his roster ship is gonna be too high. So he's he's got to be my favorite dart throw on the giant side. So he had dable asked about Golladay, because Golladays in the media saying I should be playing, and you know he's like Hey, this is why receiver situation is going to change from week to week. So it's it's one of those things that I don't even know if we can go straight off like the last week's usage because he's essentially like hey, you saw it in week one. We use a different rotation and we used the week too, and like we're gonna do a different rotation in week three. So I think you have to like any giants receiver at this point he has kind of been play even Kenny Golladay is as much as I hate to say it, but I would actually go with Darius Tony because I think out of the giants receivers that really haven't, uh you know, step like played a lot, I think he's the one that has the most talent and Dallas is a man coverage team. They played the fifth most man coverage. Canarius Tony two point eight yards per route in his career versus man coverage? Uh, he's got one eighty five yards on on just sixty seven routes, fourteen of seventeen. So this is really where he excels. He's only got one point six yards per out verse zone. David Sills in in twenty five career route still hasn't caught a ball against man coverage. He's Oh three, I think that's on Daniel Jones. It's not very good. I'm not any stretch of imagination. Yeah, but what's up with Tony's cansering? Like he wasn't able to practice. I think he's not a like a plan of you know kind of a maintenance plan, because, yeah, he had I think he had a quote unquote, step back last week, but he did play more than he played in one so I'm not too worried about it. But I just think he has kind of the most upside to increase his playing time from where it's been at he's been around so far. Tony doesn't need that much playing time anyway to put up big numbers. He's obviously arguably the most talented wide receiver on his depth chart. But yeah, like you know, week one when people are freaking out, he only ran around eleven percent of dropbacks. Like that was obviously due to injury. He was like, you know, dealing with this hamstring injury and preseason stuff. So I wasn't worried about that. So...

...once, once he is healthy, he's gonna be, you know, the number two or three receiver. I just could take some time. So I do like that call. Even if he's only running around thirty percent of the time, still he still has enough, you know, potential to break the slate on that. You know that kind of usage. Yeah, but it's it's really it's a toss up. I mean we we we could think we know, but it's like like what do you what are you doing with Kinnegala there? What's your routes run for him right now? Like these are the things that like I just don't know what to do right now. I have him at Ab okay five percent last week and the week before. So going with about two thirds of last week and one third a week one. It'll it'll zero or seventy, right. So we're just kind of haves, like it's and is this the week dable really throws a curveball and Darius slayton plays of the snaps or something like that? Could Happen to record. He's he's another one that's been better against man covered in his career. So I mean you would think, like if there was a matchup for Slayton, it would be this one. Like but Slayton, I think, would take the snaps of of David Sills, I would think. So I don't know, like because I think still Slayton and Galaday essentially would all play like that x receiver, right, and then yeah, yeah, your guess is as good as mine. In wandale and Tony just get healthy, please, just save us. Yeah, and that's another thing that's like hard to figure out because Wan Dale got hurt, so we don't know where his playing time would have been if he hadn't. So even when he comes back it's gonna be tough to project all these guys. But yeah, it's the moral of the story. is any one of these giants or none of them? Could hit, because you know the total thirty nine. So maybe just right. I can't let you get out of here without asking. Um, is Chris My r? Yeah, so here he has a touch on this year. He's sort of a quasi tight end fullback, like a West Cove. Yeah, H back. So Um, is he an option or is this is this finally the first showdown slate where we're just kind of UM ignoring fullbacks? You know, we're we're doing our best to keep the fullback position alive and thriving. I think you know he isn't he read he played about thirty third of the snaps last week. That was up from in week once. I think he's always a kind of that like that option for that play. Action touchdown if they get around the goal on and it would be kind of leverage on Quan. So I don't hate it. Gary Brightwell actually got a fullback snap last week. He took a he took like a handoff. I think he got a key first down out of it. So, UH, they're using everybody. That's leverage against Berkley, if you want to go there. But UH, in the tight end room is obviously a disaster. But it looks like Tanner Hudson might actually be there starting tight end. But well, last week they split him. They split the wrap equally. Week, why it was tanner Hudson. Week two it was bellinger and Hudson were equal, but bellinger actually scored a touchdown. So that's another rookie that I feel like his his usage will probably grow as the season progresses. So if I had to pick between the two, I would actually pick bellinger. I just think he's trending, not like Hudson was. Huson was just kind of that veteran. He's always balls out in the preseason. But yeah, we saw bellinger made a play last week. If you really want to get down on the Muck, you can target. I think really what we should say, is the defenses and to you know, it's the count. But Daniel Jones turnover prone. You Got Cooper Rush, who you know the giants are gonna blitz the time. He's actually been really good against the blitz this year, nine of ten und ten in a touch but I think you know that could still create some big plays if the giants are blitzing a lot against cooper rush. So yeah, I think the defenses are both good, but better best for a touchdown than usual. I could see rush, you know, kind of forcing it to see thee lamb at times, maybe not being on the same page with Gallop. I don't I'm not sure how much practice time they've had together, but...

...certainly this is a slate uh, to to you know, target both defenses, say Kan Zeke stacked with both defenses, and then you just take your take your pick as the last two guys and have like yeah, yeah, you don't want to spend all your salary on alright. That is going to wrap it up for the fancy flex week three night shift podcast. And if you guys are looking for more fantasy and DFS content, be sure to check out our fantasy preview episode on this channel where we break down uh the main slate, and also you can check out our player projections episode over on the Action Network Channel, where we also dive into a whole bunch of players on the main slate, set some prop wines and all that good stuff. So check them out. You can find Sean on twitter at the underscore oddsmaker, you can find me at Chris Raban, and you can find us at those same handles on the free, award winning action net work APP. BE SURE TO CHECK OUT ACTION NETWORK DOT COM for all of our player projections and our fantasy football and NFL betting concept as well as fantasy who have for our DFS tools and models. Until next time, let's get this money.

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